The Rules

Americans love rules. Rules for dating? Ellen and Sherrie are there to crack the whip if you are tempted to step out of line on your first date. Rules for cholesterol overload? The Atkins diet will take you to the edge of cardiac arrest on a rolling menu of meat and cream. And now we’ve got Rules for the Oscars. To predict who’s going to win what at Sunday’s night Hollywood love-in all you need to do is consult Roger Ebert’s unwritten rules.

According to Roger, any film that kills off one or more of its lead actors is likely to bag the Best Film award. And set the film in the past and little Oscar could be adorning your bookshelf before you know it.

Any actor hoping to win the Best Actor prize should only look at scripts where they will suffer. A lot. Just look at Geoffrey Rush in Shine, Tom Hanks in Philadelphia and Daniel Day-Lewis in My Left Foot. Pain is always a winner.

For actresses, the pain rule also applies. If you play a woman in a tortured relationship with the wrong men (or women), then you should be polishing up your tear-filled acceptance speech right about now. Just look at Holly Hunter taking a finger off in The Piano, Helen Hunt playing a geriatric lover in As Good As It Gets, a beefed up, orthodontically challenged Charlize Theron in Monster.

And old Roger reckons any film about the Holocaust is almost guaranteed a small statuette.

So what does that mean for Sunday night? Based on the rules, here are the predictions:

Blindness will get Jamie Foxx the best actor award for Ray.
The Aviator will get for best film because it’s a big period piece.
Death will give Hillary Swank the edge over Imelda Staunton for best actress.